The comfortable reading is that SoundHound AI closed LivePerson and the shares should be priced for a $500 million revenue story. That reading is wrong. SoundHound closed Tuesday, 27 October 2026, at $4.37 on Nasdaq. Through 31 December the last 90 daily log-returns put a bull at $4.96, a base at $3.42 and a bear at $2.67. The bull clears the close by $0.59 only because volatility outweighs a negative drift.
What the coverage skips is the guide still on the page. On 5 August the company raised 2026 revenue to $230 million to $260 million and said LivePerson was not in it. The merger closed on 4 September without a new 2026 range. The shares closed that day at $6.74 and finished Tuesday at $4.37. The $4.96 bull is revenue only if Stellantis, Hyundai, and the named restaurants keep paying.
Key facts
- Nasdaq official close, Tuesday 27 October 2026: $4.37, up $0.13, or 3.07 percent, from Monday’s $4.24. Open $4.29, high $4.4971, low $4.28, volume 18,066,250. A re-fetch at 7:12 a.m. Eastern on 28 October showed a premarket last of $4.40, status Pre-Market. That print is not the spot. Nasdaq historical file, saved 28 October 2026.
- Same file: 20-day average $5.077, so the close is $0.707, or 13.93 percent, under it. 50-day average $5.9566, so the close is $1.587, or 26.64 percent, under it. Prior five sessions, 20 to 26 October: high $4.82, low $4.20. Tuesday is $0.45 under that high and $0.17 above that low.
- Nasdaq quote page, 28 October 2026: 52-week range $4.20 to $18.76. Tuesday is 75.32 percent under the $17.71 close of 28 October 2025, and 56.17 percent under the 31 December 2025 close of $9.97.
- Company release, 5 August 2026: second-quarter revenue $61.9 million, up 45.0 percent from $42.683 million. GAAP gross margin 45.1 percent. Non-GAAP gross margin 58.4 percent. GAAP net loss $42.817 million. Non-GAAP net loss $8.987 million. Adjusted EBITDA loss $9.607 million. Guide raised to $230 million to $260 million, LivePerson excluded. Exhibit 99.1.
- Exhibit 99.2, 5 August 2026: six-month revenue $106.092 million, against $71.812 million. Cash and cash equivalents $202.776 million at 30 June, plus $0.676 million restricted. Six-month operating cash outflow $59.969 million. Equity-distribution proceeds $48.481 million. Class A shares outstanding 403,287,100. Financial statements.
- Form 8-K, 4 September 2026: LivePerson closed. First-lien holders took 25,142,335 Class A shares and $2,499,450. Second-lien holders took 11,752,504 shares and $3,348,550. Common holders were set on 2 September at 0.4673 shares plus $3.31 cash. John Collins became chief financial officer. Closing 8-K.
- Named on 5 August: Stellantis and Hyundai expanded live generative AI units. Ruby Tuesday took Smart Answering and Smart Ordering. Five Guys, IHOP, and Jersey Mike’s kept expanding. Habit Burger, Red Lobster, Torchy’s Tacos, and Lazy Dog renewed. Rakuten Securities renewed. Champion Payer Solutions was a new healthcare win.
- House path from the $4.37 close, not a broker target: bull $4.96, base $3.42, bear $2.67. N is 45. Mean log-return -0.00542383. Sample standard deviation 0.03685951. Nasdaq lists earnings on 5 November 2026. No filing pulled here sets that clock. No English FinanceFeeds SoundHound pair collided with this one.
What just happened, and why the obvious reading is wrong
The signing and the close are not one event. The merger was announced on 21 April and closed on 4 September. The stock finished that day at $6.74, on volume of 20,674,130, and Tuesday at $4.37, 35.16 percent lower.
The $500 million line is not 2026 guidance. The 4 September release targets more than $500 million of future revenue from the existing customer base. The 21 April release put 2027 at a minimum of $350 million to $400 million, with at least $100 million from LivePerson. On 5 August the company said it would update the $230 million to $260 million range when the deal closed. The filings pulled here do not contain that update.
Six-month revenue was $106.092 million, up 47.74 percent from $71.812 million. The $230 million floor leaves $123.9 million for the second half. The $260 million ceiling leaves $153.9 million. Those are subtractions, not a forecast. LivePerson was inside the company for part of the third quarter and outside the guide.
Monday’s $4.20 low is the low of the saved file and of the 52-week range. Tuesday’s $0.13 bounce did not retake the 20-day average. FinanceFeeds reported on 4 August that Situational Awareness sold most of its public book to Citadel after leveraged bets including Nebius and SanDisk. SoundHound is not in that sentence. The August hardware unwind does not explain this close.
The cash reading uses the wrong header. The 5 August release labels a table “Quarter Ended” and prints operating outflow of $59.969 million, investing outflow of $32.727 million, and financing inflow of $46.699 million. Exhibit 99.2 puts those figures under six months ended 30 June, starting from $249.166 million. The 7 May release had cash at $216 million on 31 March. Cash and cash equivalents on 30 June were $202.776 million. The $60 million figure is a half-year outflow, not a second-quarter burn.
Who is exposed
The operating exposure is a list of names, and most of them have no dollar figure. Stellantis increased unit adoption and added live generative AI. Hyundai expanded the same capability. Beside them the 5 August release lists a 7-figure deal with an unnamed Chinese infotainment firm and an unnamed auto brand for in-car voice commerce. Unit adoption is not an invoice.
Restaurants are the other named book. Ruby Tuesday took Smart Answering and Smart Ordering. Expansion continued at Five Guys, IHOP, Jersey Mike’s, and an unnamed pizza brand said to be live in more than 75 percent of locations. Habit Burger, Red Lobster, Torchy’s Tacos, and Lazy Dog renewed. A seafood chain and a Mexican quick-service chain were signed and not named. The bull is revenue only if the named banners keep paying.
LivePerson is the book that changed hands. April cited 12 of the top 15 global banks, 4 of the top 5 airlines, and one billion messages a month. September repeats 25 of the Fortune 100 and folds the platform into OASYS in the coming quarters, which are not the 45 sessions through 31 December.
At 30 June, Class A outstanding was 403,287,100, up 13,216,409 from 31 December 2025. Class B was unchanged at 32,535,408. The note restructuring then issued 36,894,839 Class A shares, 9.15 percent of that June figure, plus $5,848,000 cash. That percentage is a scale check, not today’s share count. The 0.4673 ratio for common holders is separate.
Those new holders are former LivePerson creditors, and the 4 September 8-K gives them registration rights dated 2 September. They do not have to sell. On 15 July, FinanceFeeds, citing S&P Global Market Intelligence, put SoundHound third on a shares-on-loan list at 44.02 percent. That print predates the new shares. The July ranking is the last FinanceFeeds tally of the name. BigBear.ai, sixth at 39.05 percent, is a different ticker, and a later BigBear.ai bull and bear does not transfer.
What the tape and the filings show
The chart is the Nasdaq official daily close from 1 April 2026, the month of the signing, through Tuesday’s $4.37. The October 2025 high of $18.76 is outside the frame. Daily lows are on the top panel, so Monday’s $4.20 and this window’s high of $10.045 both fit. The 20-day and 50-day averages are overhead.
Tuesday’s 18,066,250 shares were 17.12 percent above the prior 20-session average of 15,425,337. The largest log-return in the 90 below is 6 August at $7.08 to 7 August at $8.02, up 13.28 percent, after 89,567,980 shares on 6 August. It stayed in the sample. Sigma is a run of wide days, not that single print.
| Item | Figure | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Official close | $4.37 on 27 October 2026 | Nasdaq daily file |
| Premarket, not the spot | $4.40 at 7:12 a.m. Eastern | Nasdaq quote page, 28 October |
| 20-day and 50-day averages | $5.077 and $5.9566 | Same daily file |
| Merger-day close | $6.74 on 4 September 2026 | Same daily file |
| Second-quarter revenue | $61.897 million, up 45.0 percent | Exhibit 99.1, 5 August |
| Six-month revenue | $106.092 million vs $71.812 million | Exhibit 99.2, 5 August |
| 2026 guide | $230 million to $260 million, ex-LivePerson | Exhibit 99.1, 5 August |
| Noteholder shares | 36,894,839 plus $5.848 million | 8-K, 4 September |
| Bull, base, bear | $4.96, $3.42, $2.67 | Formula below, N of 45 |
The title numbers are this distribution, not a broker target. Aggregator medians near $12 and near $9 were not used, because no named note was fetched.
Each of the 90 log-returns is the natural log of one close over the prior close. The 91 closes run from 18 June 2026 at $7.12 through Tuesday. Mu is -0.00542383. Sigma, dividing by 89, is 0.03685951. N is 45 sessions through 31 December, skipping only Thanksgiving on 26 November and Christmas on 25 December. The early closes on 27 November and 24 December count: 3 October sessions, 20 in November, 22 in December.
The square root of 45 is 6.70820393. N times mu is -0.24407236. The bull’s add-on, 1.5 sigma times that root, is 0.37089164. The bear’s haircut, one sigma times that root, is 0.24726109. Base is $4.37 times e to the -0.24407236, or $3.42359323, rounding half up to $3.42. Bull is $4.37 times e to the -0.24407236 plus 0.37089164, or $4.96087574, rounding to $4.96. Bear is $4.37 times e to the -0.24407236 minus 0.24726109, or $2.67360984, rounding to $2.67. No no-drift override was needed. The add-on beats the negative drift, and the bull still finishes only $0.59 above the close.
| Case | Price | Versus the $4.37 close | What has to be true |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bull | $4.96 | $0.59 above, 13.50 percent | Stellantis, Hyundai, and the named restaurants keep paying, and 5 November shows LivePerson as revenue. Drift stops falling. Not a $500 million multiple. |
| Base | $3.42 | $0.95 below, 21.74 percent | The last 90 sessions’ mean log-return continues for 45 sessions. No new guide. |
| Bear | $2.67 | $1.70 below, 38.90 percent | That drift minus one standard deviation scaled by the square root of 45. Noteholders sell, or the named programs do not invoice. |
A ten-session bull of $4.93, base of $4.14 and bear of $3.68 was computed and not used. No English FinanceFeeds SoundHound bull and bear title was found, so the year-end pair stands.
What the company has said
Keyvan Mohajer, chief executive and co-founder, said on 4 September: “This merger represents a defining moment for the new agentic AI era. Together, we are delivering the most complete AI platform to the most comprehensive enterprise customer base in the industry.” That sentence does not change the 2026 guide or state a share count. The next sentence in the release uses a dash and is not repeated here.
John Collins, the incoming chief financial officer, said: “Joining SoundHound AI at this pivotal juncture is an extraordinary opportunity to help steer the company’s next phase of global growth at a time of rapid agentic AI adoption by large enterprises.” He added: “Backed by a strong, debt-free balance sheet and market momentum, my focus will be on driving seamless operational integration, enforcing cost discipline, and accelerating our path to sustainable, high-margin profitability.” The 8-K sets his salary at $465,000 and a signing bonus at $150,000. No post-close cash balance was printed.
James Hom, interim chief financial officer on 5 August after Nitesh Sharan left on 3 April, said: “Our strong topline growth this quarter was driven by signing major enterprise AI deals attributed to OASYS.” GAAP net loss narrowed from $74.724 million to $42.817 million. The non-GAAP loss was still $8.987 million, and adjusted EBITDA was still a $9.607 million loss. Improved is not profitable.
The company account on X posted the 5 August headline: “SoundHound AI Reports Record Q2 and All Time High Revenue of $61.9 Million, Up 45%, Raises Full Year Outlook.” On 30 September it attributed to Mohajer the line “AI resolves what it can, humans handle what they should.” Later bullets in that post were cut off in the fetch and are not used. On 4 September, the close date, the account posted: “Great keynote by Keyvan Mohajer (CEO & Co-Founder of SoundHound AI) on the rise of AI agents at #ANDICOM2026.” The share count is in the 8-K, not that post.
The 26 February release put 2025 revenue at $168.9 million and the first 2026 guide at $225 million to $260 million. August raised only the floor, by $5 million.
The financing tension
The 5 August release said cash was $203 million, with no debt. Exhibit 99.2 shows $202.776 million of cash and cash equivalents and $0.676 million restricted, $203.452 million in total, at 30 June. The September release says LivePerson’s debt was retired and the combined sheet is debt-free. It does not say what cash remained after $3.31 a LivePerson share and the $5.848 million paid to noteholders. Debt-free without a cash balance is not a runway.
Sales under the Second Equity Distribution Agreement raised $48.481 million, against $0.970 million of costs. Option and plan proceeds were $3.923 million. Net financing cash was $46.699 million. Class A shares rose by 13,216,409 while the price was already well below the 2025 high. Equity was still funding a business that used cash in operations.
The 2 July agreement priced the stock leg off a 10-day average, floored at $7 and capped at $12. On 2 September the common consideration was fixed at 0.4673 shares plus $3.31. This article does not solve one into the other. Tuesday’s $4.37 is $2.63 under that $7 floor, but the shares are already issued. The $11.50 warrants are not the dilution that matters. The noteholder block is.
A 13 July illustration assumed all-stock notes at the $7 floor, 25,429,676 and 11,886,819 shares. The close was fewer shares, plus cash. Resale rights at $4.37 meet a stock under both averages. Non-GAAP gross margin stayed 58.4 percent, and stock-based pay in the EBITDA bridge was $21.495 million. The $0.02 non-GAAP loss is still a loss.
What happens next
Nasdaq lists earnings on 5 November 2026. No 8-K pulled here confirms the clock, and the 28 October quote page still had the session in premarket. If that print shows a LivePerson stub and the named auto and restaurant programs as revenue, and if the $230 million to $260 million range is replaced, the negative drift has a reason to break. The formula bull is still $4.96. A beat is not, on this maths, a $500 million multiple inside 2026.
If 5 November leaves the August range alone, or cuts it, the base of $3.42 is the last 90 sessions extended, and $2.67 is that path minus one standard-deviation band. The 36,894,839 noteholder shares can be registered for resale. Selling them into a drop from $6.74 to $4.37 is the bear side even if a restaurant stays live. The document that matters before 31 December is a revenue range that includes LivePerson.
This is not financial advice.
Frequently asked questions
Where do the sessions through 31 December 2026 put a fresh bull and bear on SoundHound?
The bull is $4.96 and the bear is $2.67, from Tuesday’s $4.37 Nasdaq close. The base, which is drift only, is $3.42. N is 45 sessions, the mean log-return is -0.00542383, and the sample standard deviation is 0.03685951. The bull is revenue only if Stellantis, Hyundai, and the named restaurant deployments keep paying. It is not a broker target and it is not the company’s $500 million language.
Why is the bull only 59 cents above the close?
Because the last 90 daily log-returns have a negative mean. The base applies that mean for 45 sessions and lands at $3.42. The bull adds 1.5 standard deviations scaled by the square root of 45. That add-on is larger than the drag from the drift, so the upper band finishes at $4.96, above the close. It does not finish at a new multiple. No override was required to force the bull above the spot.
Did LivePerson already close, and did the 2026 guide change?
Yes, the merger closed on 4 September 2026, and John Collins became chief financial officer. The 5 August guide of $230 million to $260 million excluded LivePerson, and the company said it would update that range at the close. The close release did not publish a new 2026 range. It pointed at more than $500 million of future revenue from the existing customer base. Those are different sentences.
Which customers have to keep paying for the bull to be revenue?
Stellantis and Hyundai, on live generative AI units, plus Ruby Tuesday, Five Guys, IHOP, Jersey Mike’s, Habit Burger, Red Lobster, Torchy’s Tacos, and Lazy Dog. Rakuten Securities is the named brokerage renewal. The 5 August release gave no dollar figure for Stellantis or Hyundai. An eight-figure Latin America partnership was left unnamed. A name on a list is not an invoice.
Is the 28 October premarket print the forecast spot?
No. Nasdaq’s quote page, re-fetched at 7:12 a.m. Eastern on 28 October 2026, showed a premarket last of $4.40, up 0.69 percent, with the status still Pre-Market. The official close on that page remained $4.37, stamped 4:00 p.m. Eastern on 27 October. The historical file has no 28 October bar. The formula uses Tuesday’s completed close. A later cash print is a different session.
How many shares did the LivePerson close add?
The 4 September 8-K states two blocks, not a full diluted count. First-lien holders received 25,142,335 Class A shares and $2,499,450. Second-lien holders received 11,752,504 shares and $3,348,550. Together that is 36,894,839 shares and $5,848,000. Common holders were set at 0.4673 shares plus $3.31 cash. June Class A was 403,287,100. Adding only the note shares is a scale check, not shares outstanding today.
